James Harden Is Finally A Clipper. Now What?

The Beard is headed to the City of Angels. What's the impact on each team, who's the favorite to win Most Improved Player, and why I'm exhausted.

It’s been a long time coming, but what’s done is finally done. After months of back and forth, Los Angeles and Philadelphia finally gave in and got the James Harden trade done.

All I could think when this Woj Bomb dropped in the middle of the night was “Thank God!”

If you follow the NBA as religiously as I do, you’ll learn very quickly about the world’s best reality show that when there’s smoke, there’s fire. And in the case of James Harden, when there’s smoke, fire will surely be present alongside a defeated coach, a disgruntled general manager, and a frustrated fan base. The destruction that Harden leaves in his wake is Homelander-esque — unfathomable yet unavoidable — yet when you have as much innate ability as those two do, you’re going to get a lot of chances in life.

Except one of them isn’t real. And I’m still unsure which one of the two that is.

Harden’s past is well litigated. If you’re reading this, you’re an NBA fan, so you likely know that he more or less forced his was out of Oklahoma City back in 2012, as he wanted a max contract and the Thunder weren’t willing to give him one. So, to Houston he was sent, where he became the face of the franchise, a pillar of the league, and a constant disappointment, coming up short in playoff run after playoff run despite being surrounded with hall of fame level talent for the majority of his stay in Space City.

“James being James” took its act to Brooklyn next to team up with Kyrie Irving and former Thunder teammate Kevin Durant. But after what can only be described as a less than normal working environment, Harden debuted what the internet now knows as quiet quitting — 37 minutes played, 11 shots taken, 4 points scored, and 6 turnovers issued in an unforgetable game vs the Sacramento Kings. Eight days later, Harden’s tenure as a Net ended, as he was shipped to Philly to be back alongside Daryl Morey, former GM of the Rockets and his most successful partner in crime.

So how’d that go? Two more playoff flameouts, one fired coach, and one of the most humorous public disagreements with management the sports world has ever seen. I’d call all of this ridiculous, but when it comes to James Harden, nothing is — it just exists. Because for every highlight that has put him into basketball immortality, he does something else that you didn’t think possible. It’s equal parts impressive as is it exhausting.

And I think that’s the best word to describe the James Harden experience — exhausting. Because as high as the highs can be, the lows are lower than you can possibly imagine, and before you have time to collect your thoughts on how to move forward with him, he’s done enough to make you want to do anything to get rid of him.

So onto Los Angeles he goes, where Steve Ballmer has convinced himself like many have before that he can make this work. Which, when you have talent as elite as James Harden does, is an easy story to tell yourself. Ignore the bad, embrace the good, and when it comes playoff time, hope he shows up. Sounds simple enough, right?

With James Harden, it never is.

How Will He Fit In LA?

There have been times where I’ve envied the life of Tyronn Lue. He did bring my Cavaliers a championship in 2016 after all. However, this is not one of them, because as great of a coach as Lue is, I do not have the slightest idea how he’s going to make this congolmerate of talent work. And you’ll notice that I said “conglomerate of talent” and didn’t use the word “team” because a team this is anything but.

• A team is the 2022-23 Denver Nuggets, with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray spearheading the attack, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr being secondary options, and Kentavious Caldwell Pope getting in where he fits in

• A team is the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers, with Lebron James and Anthony Davis leading the charge, Danny Green and Kentavious Caldwell Pope providing 3 and D, and Dwight Howard patrolling the paint

• A team is the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors, with Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry being Options A, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson being overqualified Options B, and Zaza Pachulia being asked not to screw anything up

But the current roster of the Lose Angeles Clippers? This isn’t a team at all. This is Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, James Harden, and Russell Westbrook standing in the same room all thinking the same thing:

“I’m the best one here, so which of you is willing to make sacrifices to make this work because it sure as shit aint gonna be me.”

Now don’t get it twisted — they’ll say what they need to say in the media because that’s what they’re trained to do. And, yes, sometimes it’s going to look really good. But when push comes to shove, and the game is on the line, who’s going to make the sacrifices it takes to ensure victory? Because a clear pecking order is what it takes to be a great team in the NBA, and if you think for a second that you’re going to tell James Harden that he’s the third best player on this team, which he is, after he not so subtly implied that he wanted to reunite with Houston this offseason so he could go back to being a ball-dominant PG, I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news.

Do you want to have the conversation with Russell Westbrook that he’s coming off the bench again after that horrific display in doing so last season on the Lakers and that, in the best interest of the team, he won’t be in the game during crunch time because he’s a liability on defense in favor of *checks notes* Norman Powell or Terance Mann? Good luck with that.

Do you want to tell Kawhi Leonard or Paul George, the longest tenured players on the team who are also soon-to-be free agents playing for new contracts, that we’re deferring to whatever Harden wants to do down the stretch because he has incredible court vision and has shown to be a great decision maker some percentage of time in tough games? We’ll see.

On paper, this team is historic. George, Leonard, Harden, and Westbrook are soon to be NBA Hall of Famers, Mann + Powell are great role players, and Zubac + Plumlee provide the size needed to at least give you a fighting chance against Jokic and Davis. But saying the right things is one thing; doing them is another. I’m not normally a skeptic, but those hypothetical conversations Lue is going to have? They’re not as hypothetical as you think (just ask Steve Kerr).

What Happens Now For Philly?

Right! The newest team that James Harden left! What’s their outlook in light of The Beard’s most recently path of destruction?

Have you watched the first three games that Philly played this season? Because if you’re like me, and you can’t get enough of 76ers on your tv, you know that they’re going to be just fine. Tyrese Maxey is every bit as good as we hoped he’d be, Embiid is playing like a reigning MVP should, and Tobias Harris, who was shoved into the corner during his time with Doc Rivers, has been allowed to blossom once again under Nick Nurse.

Through those three games which, admittedly, is a small sample, Philly has a +11.3 point differential and are third in the NBA in offensive efficiency. But more importantly, they’re not done making moves. Acquiring Robert Covington, Nic Batum, and Kenyon Martin Jr helps to solidify their roster with quality role players, but the draft capital acquired from the Clippers alongside the timeline of Joel Embiid’s prime means that another move is on the horizon. Daryl Morey is shrewd as he is patient when it comes to negotiations to better his team, so while it might be unclear what his next move may be, know that when it does happen, it will be favorable for the 76ers.

In what was a minefield of uncertainty coming into the season, the 76ers outlook is crystal clear — they have an elite player (Embiid), a rising star (Maxey), a fringe all-star (Harris), and a championship winning coach (Nurse). Is that enough to get by Boston or Milwaukee? Not as presently constructed, but their future is as bright as it has ever been under Morey. And if you’re a 76ers fan, that’s about the best you can ask for given how things looked five days ago.

What’s The Betting Impact?

I know that’s what you’re here for and I’m happy to oblige. Tyrese Maxey as Most Improved Player is the first award most people gravitated towards after the dust settled from the latest Woj Bomb, but his odds dropped immediately from around +1200 to +200, making any value to be had almost nonexistent. When a drastic shift like that takes place in a betting market, the assumption is that he’s not a vulnerable favorite. But as Ken Barkley of You Better You Bet explained on Tuesday, this award is both a lot more complicated and a lot simpler than people realize.

Ignoring MIP, this trade impacts 76ers’ player props in a massive way. If you’ve joined me through the first week of the season, you know I’ve been hammering the over on Tobias Harris’ points prop and Joel Embiid’s assists prop, as we received loads of evidence last season exactly how those players were used alongside Maxey when Harden was out of the lineup. The same has happened through three games this season, as Harris is asked to more offensively without Harden’s usage having to be taken into account — Harris is averaging 19.7 points per game thus far — while Embiid is double teamed far more often without Harden on the court, allowing him to pass to open teammates and rack up assists — Embiid is averaging 7.0 assists per game thus far.

At some point, sports books will adjust to this, as this is both public knowledge (I’m not a genius) and line setters aren’t stupid (but it sure would be cool if they were). The questions to ask are exactly when will these adjustments take place and how drastic they will be. Taking a look at FanDuel’s player props for Philly’s game this evening against Toronto, the answers appear to be “now and not enough”

Of the two, Harris’ number is still far too low in my estimation, not only because of his predictable increase in usage, but also because of the coach of the team. One thing we know about Nick Nurse from his time in Toronto is that he subscribes to the theory of “Play your best players as much as possible.” Through three games with Nurse at the helm, Harris is averaging 37.0 minutes per game, compared to 32.9 per game in 2022-23, and 34.8 minutes per game in 2021-22 under Doc Rivers.

I strongly believe this number is going to climb up to 17.5 at some point over the next two weeks, so get in while the getting is good is the name of the game. And for sake of clarity, I’m still a fan of the over on Embiid’s assists prop as well; I just like it less than Harris’ points prop because assists are harder to accumulate than points (again, I’m not a genius).

Farewell For Now

Harden’s stay in Brooklyn? 80 regular season games.

His stay in Philadelphia? 79.

His upcoming stint in Los Angeles? Insert your best guess here.

But one thing I’m not guessing about is this — the 76ers won this trade and Harden’s next path of destruction will be here sooner than you think. Prepare to be exhausted once again.

Ced here. Many thanks for reading!

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