Boston Celtics Season Preview
Is the Green Machine back and better than ever?
The darling of the Atlantic Division, the 2022-2023 Boston Celtics were a team with no shortage of talent (Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown), depth (sixth man of the year Malcolm Brogdon), and success (57-25, #2 seed). But another rocky ride in the playoffs introduced a question Celtics management haven’t had to answer in quite a while — do they have the right coach for the job?
Prior to last season, coaching has rarely, if ever, been a question Boston has had to address. From Red Auerbach, Bill Russell, and Tommy Heinsohn to Doc Rivers, Brad Stevens, and Ime Udoka, the team in green have always had a steady hand leading the ship.
That is until Joe Mazzulla showed up.
Mazzulla was a lightning rod for criticism last season, spearheaded mostly by Celtics Superfan Bill Simmons:
Was Mazulla’s coaching in the playoffs perfect? No, and if you asked him, I bet he’d be the first to admit that. But he wasn’t a total zero either, because coaches rarely are (even though they take the majority of the blame for a team’s lack of success).
So before I delve into the addition of Kristaps Porzingis, the ommission of Marcus Smart, and the potential glow up for Sam Hauser, here’s my case for why Joe Mazzulla isn’t only going to survive the pitchforks in Boston, but thrive this season as the Celtics head coach. But to talk about Mazzulla’s future, we must begin with the Celtics not-so-distant past and one date in particular:
What Happened On January 28, 2022?
A date that almost certainly has no bearing on your life, but did on former Boston Celtics coach, Ime Udoka. It was on this day that the Celtics lost in TD Garden to the Atlanta Hawks, 108-92, dropping their record to a rather disappointing 25-25.
Who started that night for the Celtics? The same Celtics we all know and love.
So why does a random game in January matter this much? Because this was another example of Boston, a team led by elite talents in Tatum and Brown, underachieveing during the 2021-2022 season. But no matter what Udoka tried up to this point, nothing worked. And their record reflected that, with the Celtics never being more than two games above .500 at any point during the season.
And the criticism was as loud as ever:
“It’s time to split up Tatum and Brown. It’s just never going to fully work.”
“We love Smart, but he can’t be a lead guard for a championship team.”
“Why aren’t Schroder and Richardson playing better?”
But, oddly enough, Idoka wasn’t really under fire. After all, it wasn’t really *his* fault that things weren’t going according to plan. And with the departure of beloved head coach, Brad Stevens, Udoka was granted a longer leash than most coaches normally would be given with a roster this talented because it was his first time as head coach and the players needed to get used to a new voice in the locker room.
So what happened next?
The Celtics went 26-6 in their next 32 games, finished with the second best point differential in the league, earned the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference, and lost a close series in the NBA Finals to the Golden State Warriors.
Funny how winning solves a lot of problems!
But don’t forget that during their run to the Finals, Boston was down 3-2 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals to a Milwaukee Bucks team without Khris Middleton before Tatum went for 46 points in Game 6 and Grant Williams went 7-18 from three in Game 7 to fend off the defending champs.
And then there’s the Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat, where Boston was up 3-2 before laying an egg on their home court in Game 6 and trying everything in their power to blow Game 7.
So, to review, Udoka’s tenure started off rocky, the team got hot to close out the regular season, then they struggled mightily with a Middleton-less Bucks before, despite their best efforts, overcoming Miami to get to the Finals. I’m not saying Udoka did a poor job, but lets not act like he was the second coming of Phil Jackson either.
Now lets compare Udoka’s single season as head coach to what Mazzulla did last season:
Through the first 50 games of 2022-23, the Celtics were 35-15 — ten games better than Udoka’s 25-25 record in 2021-22
The Celtics were first in point differential in 2022-23 — one spot better than 2021-22 team
Boston’s final record was 57-25 under Mazzulla — six games better than the 51-31 record Udoka accomplished
Both coaches struggled in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, with Udoka barely overcoming Milwaukee without Middleton and Mazzulla barely overcoming Philadelphia (shoutout to James Harden for Hardening when it mattered most!)
Both coaches struggled mightily with Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals, with Udoka sneaking by them despite their best efforts while Mazzulla almost helped lead a historic comeback before coming up short in Game 7 (who knows what would have happened if Tatum doesn’t sprain his ankle)
So I ask you this — why was there so much praise for Udoka and why has there been so much criticism for Mazzulla? Are they really that different? Or, perhaps, both are operating on a single season sample size and we don’t know enough about either to say if they’re a good or bad coach? Just a little food for thought, as you’ll almost assuredly hear how bad of a coach Mazzulla was last season and how Udoka is going go turn Houston around in many season previews over the next few weeks.
Teaching An Old Dog New Tricks
Now lets get to Boston’s roster, shall we?
Starting lineup:
PG Derrick White
SG Jaylen Brown
SF Jayson Tatum
PF Kristaps Porzingis
C Robert Williams III
Relevant bench players:
Al Horord
Malcolm Brogdon
Sam Hauser
Payton Pritchard
Lamar Stevens
Departures:
Marcus Smart (traded to Memphis)
Grant Williams (signed in Dallas)
Mike Muscala (signed in Washington)
Blake Griffin (retired)
The headliner here is the swap of Marcus Smart for Porzingis and its impact across the roster. Last season, Boston’s depth was at the guard position, with Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, and Smart being interchangeable pieces. This year, it’s at center, with Porzingis, Robert Williams III, and Al Horford being three quality options at Mazzulla’s disposal.
Let’s start with what Boston will lose with the departure of Smart. His defense is second to very few, so the Celtics will almost assuredly struggle more with opposing guards moving forward. But last season, Smart averaged 6.3 assists per game — not only a career high, but also the team lead (Tatum was second with 4.6 assists per game). With Smart gone, White will become the lead ball handler and will presumably be asked to distribute more. Last season, White averaged 3.9 assists per game, which is right around his career average of 3.8, but he did show in his final season in San Antonio that he was capable of more, averaging 5.6 assists per game in 49 games.
Last season, I felt that Boston was at its best when the ball was moving, not when Tatum and Brown played in isolation. Now that’s not to say that JT and JB aren’t great at isolation basketball, because they certainly are, but there were plenty of instances in the playoffs last season where Boston’s offense struggled when they got stagnant, especially against Miami. So will White be able to play faciliator more than what has been asked of him thus far during his tenue in Boston? My answer is yes, and I did a little digging to support that thought.
White averaged 28.3 minutes per game last season, while Smart averaged 32.1. Assuming that White sees a slight uptick in minutes to a clean 30 per game, I checked to see how many regular season games White played 30 minutes or more (36) and how many assists he averaged in those games (5.25). Yes, that comes in below Smart’s 6.3 assists per game last season, but it’s proof of concept; White is capable of improvement in this area.
How To Use KP?
The big question is not only what to expect from Porzingis, but how Mazzulla will use him. KP had, arguably, his best season last year with Washington, averaging 23.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.5 blocks in 65 games — the most games he has played since his sophmore season. His health will always be a question, but assuming he’s capable of playing 65 games again, Boston is getting a strech four who’s capable of a ton and has never played with this much talent around him.
I’m slotting Porzingis in at power forward to start the season, as I believe Boston will mimic what Washington did last season with Porzingis and Daniel Gafford, putting Porzigins alongside a defensive-minded center (and there are few better defensive-minded centers in the league than Robert Williams III, assuming he’s healthy). I also believe that, at age 37, the days of Al Horford starting should be behind us.
Speaking of Horford, did you know he shot 44.6% from three last season? That’s not a typo; that’s a real number. Here’s a few other real numbers you probably won’t believe:
325 3s attempted for the season
5.2 3s attempted per game
145 3s made for the season
2.3 3s made per game
Even though many view Horford as an undersized center, last year, he was the very definition of a stretch 4 — a postion that Porzingis knows all too well. Here are KP’s numbers from distance last season:
356 3s attempted for the season
5.5 3s attempted per game
137 3s made for the season
2.1 3s made per game
Those numbers are strikingly similar, so swapping Horford out for Porzingis appears to make a lot of sense on paper. Will it play out that way? I think that’s in play, but with Tatum and Brown around, I think the days of Porzingis averaging 20+ points per game are long gone.
Whose Haus? Sam’s Haus!
Look, I didn’t come into this season preview expecting to write about Sam Hauser, but he’s going to matter this season more than people realize. Here’s why:
Last season, Jaylen Brown missed fifteen games. In those games, here’s who started in each (not for him, but in general):
Derrick White: 15
Jayson Tatum: 13
Robert Williams III: 9
Al Horford: 8
Marcus Smart: 8
Grant Williams: 7
Sam Hauser: 6
Blake Griffin: 4
Payton Pritchard: 2
Malcolm Brogdon: 0
My takeaways here are:
When Brown is out, Tatum plays, plays extremely well, and his usage increases from 32.6% to 34.9%
Mazzulla mixed things up with Williams III and Horford, oftentimes starting one or the other, but not both, which is why we have some seemingly random Grant Willams, Blake Griffin, and Sam Hauser starts. I expect less randomness in the starting front court with the arrival of Porzingis, alongside the departures of Williams, Griffin, and Mike Muscala
Though the Celtics acquired Oshae Brissett and Lamar Stevens in the offseason, they’ve got a new system to learn and minutes to earn. Sam Hauser does not, as he played in 80 games last season
Malcolm Brogdon never starts when Brown is out, as Mazzulla clearly values what he brings to the second unit
Last season, Jayson Tatum missed eight games. In those games, here’s who started in each (again, not for him, but in general):
Derrick White: 8
Jaylen Brown: 6
Marcus Smart: 5
Al Horford: 4
Sam Hauser: 4
Mike Muscala: 3
Blake Griffin: 3
Grant Williams: 3
Robert Williams III: 2
Payton Pritchard: 1
Malcolm Brogdon: 0
My takeaways here are:
When Tatum is out, Brown plays, plays extremely well, and his usage increases from 31.4% to 35.7%
Mazzulla, again, mixed things up with Williams III and Horford, oftentimes starting one or the other, but not both, which is why we, again, have some seemingly random Grant Willams, Blake Griffin, and Sam Hauser starts. I, again, expect less randomness in the starting front court with the arrival of Porzingis, alongside the departures of Williams, Griffin, and Mike Muscala
Malcolm Brogdon also never starts when Tatum is out
So why does all of this matter? Because it shows what Mazzulla plans to do, or, more importantly, because of roster limitations, what Mazzulla has to do — play Sam Hauser, who played 16.1 minutes per game while shooting 41.8% from three last season. This is a huge opportunity not only for Hauser, but also sports bettors (hi!) and daily fantasy sports players (hi!). An increase in minutes means an increase in opportunity. And an increase in opportunity means an increase to take advantage of mispriced bets and/or mispriced salary depending on which activity you dabble in.
In games where Brown is out, I’d guess that Mazzulla sends out the following lineup more often than not…
PG: White
SG: Pritchard
SF: Tatum
PF: Porzingis
C: Williams III
With Hauser being one of the first players off the bench alongside Brogdon and/or Horford. Mazzulla could also do the following depending on health/matchup:
PG: White
SG: Pritchard
SF: Hauser
PF: Tatum
C: Porzingis/Williams III
And in the times when Brown is in and Tatum is out? It’s Hauser time baby!
PG: White
SG: Brown
SF: Hauser
PF: Porzingis
C: Williams III
Beantown Beatdown
Boston has too much talent to be anything but excellent. The only question left to answer is how excellent will they be? Derrick White was awesome last season and I foresee his transition from off guard into more of a lead guard/facilitator to be a seamless one. Porzingis is coming off an incredible season in Washington, and now he’ll be asked to be Al Horford on steriods, a role I believe he can fulfill, though it might be rocky at the start because, again, he’s never played with this much talent around him, so he won’t be asked to do as much, which will take some getting used to.
Tatum and Brown are uber talents, so I have no concerns about them on the court, but are they ready to be the leaders of the team off the court, a role that appeared to belong to Smart when the going got tough? I’m betting the answer is yes.
They’re talented, they’re deep, and if you believe Mazzulla sucked last year as a coach, which you know I don’t, guess what — coaches, and people, generally get better at things, not worse, the more they do them, so let’s just say that Joe Mazzulla’s worst year as being a head coach in the NBA was last season.
And if your worst year as head coach in the NBA was leading your team to a game away from the NBA Finals? That’s one helluva coach.
Bets I Like
Here are a few things I’ll be keying in on to start the season that pertain to sports betting that you can extrapolate to DFS fairly easily:
Derrick White over assists assuming it’s 4.5 (given my analysis above, this should make sense)
Jayson Tatum under rebounds assuming it’s 7.5 or 8.5 (Porzingis is a better rebounder than Horford, and if Williams III is out there with regularity, Tatum simply won’t have to rebound as much)
When Brown is out, over Tatum’s point total if the matchup is even remotely decent
When Tatum is out, over Brown’s point toal if the matchup is even remotely decent
Porzingis points under if it’s around 19 points, as he’s next to two usage monsters is Tatum and Brown
Hauser overs when Brown or Tatum sit
Noting here that I still don’t know what I think about Payton Pritchard on this team at all, as so much of the usage is going to go to Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, Brogdon, and White
Ced here. Many thanks for reading!
Creating this content is my job now, so if you liked what you read, acquiring a paid subscription helps me a ton. If you can’t do that, totally cool, as a like/share/comment/free subscrpition is just as appreciated.
You’re dope either way for stopping by. Cheers!