Philadelphia 76ers Season Preview
The NBA's biggest circus lives in The City of Brotherly Love, but will a new coach solve the problems that Doc Rivers couldn't?
Well well well, if it isn’t everyone’s favorite NBA shit show…
The Philadelphia 76ers are a team we’ve rarely, if ever, seen before. Imagine, if you will, a team composed of the reigning MVP, a former MVP that’s a first ballot Hall of Famer, an elite young talent who could break through at any moment, and an overpaid fourth option that doesn’t complain about his role. You’d think that team would be a favorite to win the NBA Finals right?
You’d be wrong. Because nothing about this team makes any sense.
After a 54-28 regular season in 2022-23, in which they were third in Offensive Efficiency, eighth in Defensive Efficiency, first in 3 Point % (38.7%), and third in Opponents Points Per Game (110.9), the 76ers did what they’ve always done in the Joel Embiid era — come up short in the playoffs in embarrassing fashion. This led to the firing of Doc Rivers, the hiring of Nick Nurse, the offseason nonsense of James Harden, and the signing of Kelly Oubre Jr (one of these things is not like the other).
Where Philly goes from here is anyone’s guess., but any 76ers preview must begin with Team USA’s newest center.
The Process Is On Life Support
Last season, I predicted Joel Embiid would win the NBA’s most important regular season award for all the wrong reasons:
Let’s get this out of the way first — barring injury, Embiid is winning the MVP. He could have won it the last two seasons, his team is likely to be the #1 seed in the East, and his other real competitor (Doncic) has a worse team who I believe is play-in bound (more on that later). If you want to ride down Narrative Street, Embiid is "owed" an MVP (I think that's bullshit but some people believe it).
Yes, Embiid was fantastic during the regular season, but so were Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo — two players who had previously won the award twice. Voter fatigue, for better or worse, is a real thing and it became quite clear during the season that voters were looking for any reason to not give The Joker his third consecutive MVP award, an honor that has only been bestowed upon Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Larry Bird. I was quite vocal on Twitter X about both how silly I felt this was, but also given how obvious it was that this was going to be the outcome, that betting on it would be extremely profitable:
Naturally, after Embiid won MVP and paid for my new television, he did what he always does — underperform in the playoffs. And I say always because, well, it’s just true:
Regular Season Averages: 27.2 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.7 blocks in 31.8 minutes on 50.1% shooting
Playoff Averages: 24.0 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.8 steals, and 1.8 blocks in 34.6 minutes on 46.1% shooting
Embiid was notably poor in the 2022-23 playoffs, as he averaged 23.7 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.7 steals, and 2.8 blocks in 37.3 minutes on 43.1% shooting. That decline in stats may not seem like much, but come playoff time, when you need your best players to be your best players, Embiid was anything but. And unfortunately for him, this type of narrative is going to follow him around until he makes it to, at least, the Eastern Conference Finals.
You’re probably wondering “Does Ced hate Joel Embiid?”. Absolutely not. I think Joel Embiid is a wonderfully skilled basketball player who’s great for the NBA. I just think he’s the third best player in the league, not the first, as that title belongs to the reigning NBA Finals MVP who hates coming to work. There’s no shame in being third, but there is shame in not playing like it when it matters most. And as much fun as it was to watch Embiid cook Jokic in their head-to-head last season, there’s no question who the better player of the two is.
The only question left to answer about Embiid is will he ask out of Philly. Because his current running mate, James Harden, is arguably making his life worse than his former one, Ben Simmons. Yes, Embiid loves the city and fans of Philadelphia, but a human can only endure so much nonsense before the allure of greener pastures starts to be something they truly consider. I’d love to see Embiid take the 76ers to the promised land, and I’m sure he would too, but if Harden’s gonna Harden, it simply aint gonna happen.
The Beard Is Weird
When I wrote my Celtics preview last week, and it got blown to smithereens by the Jrue Holiday trade, I learned something in the process — if you think something might happen around a team, wait a few days before writing about them just to be safe. And in the case of James Harden, it was if he would show up for NBA Media Day (no!) and if he would show up to 76ers training camp in Colorado (yes!).
Harden skipping out on NBA Media Day wasn’t much of a surprise. I’m sure he had no interest in answering any questions about his rocky relationship with Daryl Morey:
Or the time he called Daryl Morey a liar:
Or the signs at a party he held in Houston saying DARYL MOREY IS A LIAR:
Because those would be a lot of questions to answer. And I just don’t believe James Harden, the 34-year-old who opted into his $35.6 million dollar contract for the season on his own volition, is ready to answer any difficult questions. Like, for example, why did you opt into a $35.6 million dollar contract if you don’t want to be in Philadelphia? (the answer is because you don’t pass up on $35.6 million dollars).
Look, I could sit here and wax poetic about how good peak James Harden is (was?). I could write for days about his numerous disappearing acts during the playoffs. And it would give me great joy to predict his decline this season. But I’m not going to do any of those things.
Because I’m tired of James Harden.
Everything around this guy is exhausting. Will he show up when it matters most? Probably not, except for when he does (see: Game 1 and Game 4 against Boston). Does he want to be a Philadelphia 76er? It doesn’t appear to be that way, but he showed up for training camp, so who knows. Does he like playing with Joel Embiid? He says he does, but he’s also alluded to wanting to go back to playing Harden Ball™ where he dictates everything 100% of the time. If he doesn’t get what he wants, will he sabotage the team? He’s done so twice before, in Houston and Brooklyn, but does he have it in him to do it a third time?
His act is getting old. He’s not the guy he once was and he’s the only one who doesn’t know it. Even Russell Westbrook had his come to Jesus moment this offeseason, signing a 2 year, $8 million dollar contract with the Los Angeles Clippers, instead of holding out for better offers that were never going to come.
I’d say that it’s time for James Harden to grow up, but we both know that’s never going to happen. But what will happen? Your guess is as good as mine.
Take It To The Max(ey)
Calling someone underrated is always fraught with peril because the word underrated oftentimes comes with a negative connotation. Or it comes with a “I know more than you because I pay more attention to this than you” smugness that people generally don’t like. But if there’s one player who I think is underutilized and simply needs more runway to cook in the NBA, it’s Tyrese Maxey. Because when he’s spoken about in NBA discourse, it’s generally “He’s a really nice young player” and not “He’s the 76ers second best player and they need to carve a path for him to reach his ceiling”. Which, honestly, does make a lot of sense when your other guard, James Harden, is a first ballot Hall of Famer and one of the best passers the game has ever seen, so you’re incentivized as a franchise and as his coach to put the ball in his hands as much as possible because the results speak for themselves.
But.. And there’s always a but…
What if Philadelphia decided they wanted to see what Maxey’s ceiling is? Because I think it’s higher than anyone realizes. I’m talking one of the best fifteen guards in the NBA type of ceiling, but we’re not going to know if that’s true until Harden is off the team. So, instead of hypotheticals, I’d like for you to simply compare and contrast the following stats from last year of Maxey’s to a few of his similarly aged contemporaries:
Tyrese Maxey: 20.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game on 48.1% shooting (43.4% from three) and 24.1% usage. 22 years old.
Anthony Edwards: 24.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game on 45.9% shooting (36.9% from three) on 29.9% usage. 22 years old.
Darius Garland: 21.6 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 7.8 assists per game on 46.2% shooting (41.0% from three) on 26.8% usage. 23 years old.
Tyrese Haliburton: 20.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 10.4 assists per game on 49.0% shooting (40.0% from three) on 23.8% usage. 23 years old.
LaMelo Ball: 23.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 8.4 assists per game on 41.1% shooting (37.6% from three) on 30.1% usage. 22 years old.
Ja Morant: 26.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per game on 46.6% shooting (30.7% from three) on 34.8% usage. 24 years old.
Jalen Green: 22.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game on 41.7% shooting (33.8% from three) on 28.0% usage. 21 years old.
Of these players, Maxey’s 3 Point % is the highest (very important in today’s NBA), his Field Goal % is the second highest (behind Haliburton), and his usage is the second lowest (again, behind Haliburton). What this tells me — besides that Tyrese Haliburton is outrageously good as basketball and is a sneaky candidate for All-NBA this season— is that Maxey has the ability to do more if he was given the option to do so, but that’s simply never been the case. Under Doc Rivers, he was being asked to play third fiddle to Embiid and Harden which, again, makes a lot of sense because it’s Joel Embiid and James Harden. But under Nick Nurse? Perhaps things may change. Because if there’s one thing Nick Nurse doesn’t mind doing, it’s ruffle his player’s feathers in the name of winning.
But there’s one more thing to point out here that I’ve purposefully slow rolled for you, dear reader. In the case of Edwards, Garland, Haliburton, Ball, Morant, and Green, all have had clear cut roles carved out for them. They’re the present and future of their respective teams and their roles as starters are unquestioned. But did you know that last season, of the 60 regular season games that Maxey played, he only started 41 of them? That Doc Rivers experimented with De’Anthony Melton starting over Maxey because he felt Melton would be a better fit alongside Embiid and Harden?
Within NBA discourse, oftentimes it is said that players are a product of their situation. And it’s never been more true of Tyrese Maxey. It’s so incredibly clear that this kid is awesome and that he has had his ceiling lowered by having to play next to James Harden and being coached by Doc Rivers. If Nick Nurse is half the coach I think he is, the Maxey explosion could be coming. And if it is, look out, because it’s time for him to be viewed as what he is — an elite guard in the NBA.
Just Role With It
Can you imagine signing a 5-year, $180 million dollar contract to be a fourth option and a glorified role player? Because that’s the life Tobias Harris is living right now and I’m quite jealous of it:
Last year, Harris took 11.4 shots per game, shooting 50.1% from the floor. Let’s compare those numbers to the numbers of his past five seasons:
2017-18: 16.0 (47.3%)
2018-19: 15.1 (48.3%)
2019-20: 16.3 (47.1%)
2020-21: 14.9 (51.2%)
2021-22: 14.0 (48.2%)
Tobias Harris can score; that much is clear. So why isn’t he being asked to do more of that?
Oh right… that whole playing next to Joel Embiid and James Harden thing again…
Starting to see a common theme?
What’s funny is that I’m painting this picture that playing next to Embiid and Harden is a bad thing for other skilled players like Maxey and Harris, but clearly it’s not. Since the Harden trade in 2022, the 76ers have gone 68-35 in regular season games. And in the 79 games that Harden has played during his tenure in Philly, the 76ers are 53-26. This team wins and having super skilled players next to Harden and Embiid isn’t a bad thing; it’s an interesting one. Because when someone as skilled offensively as Tobias Harris. who for his career shoots 47.8%, is being asked to do less, not more. it makes one wonder “Are these players around Embiid and Harden being maximized?”
And I don’t just have that question about Maxey and Harris. I also have those questions for the other role players on this roster. Did Doc Rivers, Joel Embiid, and James Harden get the most out of the 76ers roster last season? And if they didn’t, will Nick Nurse be able to?
Wa(wa)llowing In Sadness
The Philadelphia 76ers are the league’s most frustrating team.
This is an organization that has built a roster with an immense amount of talent, consistently employs above average to excellent head coaches, has an owner who isn’t afraid to spend, and has a savvy general manager who isn’t afraid to do what it takes to win. The 76ers are a team with the reigning MVP (Embiid), the 2022-23 league leader in assists who can go molten at any moment (Harden), an up-and-coming talent that may be a multi-time all-star if given the opportunity (Maxey), a player who has averaged 18+ points in his career six different times that’s being asked to play fourth fiddle and is somehow cool with it (Harris), and competent role players up and down the roster.
And yet, if you were to ask anyone about their chances of winning the NBA title this season, most would tell you, myself included, “They’ll find a way to lose in the second round of the playoffs.” It’s absolutely maddening, but as a wise man once said…
And that’s all it will take to see The Process finally end once and for all.
Bets I Like
Here are a few things I’ll be keying in on to start the season that pertain to sports betting that you can extrapolate to DFS fairly easily:
76ers win total over 48.5 wins. Despite all the potential nonsense with Harden this season, this team is too talented to miss this win total. If Harden misses games and/or gets traded, Maxey is good enough to win games by himself. And if Harden plays (and tries!), we know what the 76ers are capable of
Tobias Harris in DFS. In the 14 games Embiid missed last season, Harris averaged 18.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in 32.9 minutes on 23.6% usage. Compare that to his 2022-23 season avergaes of 14.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists in 32.9 minutes on 18.3% usage, and it’s clear that Harris is asked to, and is capable of, doing more when Embiid is out. Paul Reed and/or Mo Bamba will play in these spots, but the better option is likely Harris, who oftentimes doesn’t see a significant price jump in these spots
Tyrese Maxey in DFS. In the 13 games Harden missed last season, Maxey averaged 24.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists in 35.3 minutes on 28.7% usage. Compare that to his 20.3 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in 33.6 minutes on 24.1% usage, and it’s clear that Maxey is asked to, and is capable of, doing more when Harden is out. This advice likely reads as obvious, but it’s also important to remember that Nick Nurse does not mind playing his starters a ton (Pascal Siakam led the league in Minutes Per Game last season at 37.4 and Fred VanVleet was 5th at 36.7)
Ced here. Many thanks for reading!
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